The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing an expiry event with around 20,000 Bitcoin options expiring, amounting to a notional value of $1.35 billion. While today’s expiry event is relatively small compared to previous weeks, a much larger expiry event is scheduled for June 28, with $6.7 billion worth of derivatives expiring. The current put/call ratio for Bitcoin contracts stands at 0.49, indicating that there are twice as many long (call) contracts set to expire as shorts (puts). The maximum pain point for this expiry is at $68,500, slightly above the current spot prices.
Despite the expiry event, bulls still dominate the BTC derivatives market, with nearly $1 billion in open interest at the $100,000 strike price on Deribit. Significant open interest is also seen at the $75,000 and $80,000 strike prices, with $723 million and $807 million, respectively. It is evident that market sentiment remains bullish, with traders positioning themselves for higher price movements in the near future.
Market Analysis and Volatility
Greeks Live, a crypto derivatives tooling provider, reported a decrease in short-term implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum, falling below 50% and 60%, respectively. Despite major macroeconomic data releases in the United States, the overall crypto market has underperformed, with mainstream coins experiencing losses and altcoins seeing even greater declines. The market currently lacks hot spots, resulting in a relatively quiet trading environment.
Implications for Ethereum
In addition to Bitcoin options, 200,000 Ethereum options have also expired, with a put/call ratio of 0.36 and a max pain point of $3,600, totaling a notional value of $710 million. Ethereum has faced a more significant downturn compared to Bitcoin, dropping 7.7% to a four-week low of $3,434 before recovering slightly to $3,515 at the time of writing. The upcoming Ethereum ETF news later this month could potentially impact market sentiment and volatility significantly.
The total market capitalization has remained stable at $2.57 trillion over the past 24 hours, despite a 7.5% decline in markets over the previous ten days. Bitcoin saw a decrease from around $69,500 to $67,000 in early trading on Friday, with analysts attributing the decline to Bitcoin miner profit taking. Chart guru Peter Brandt has highlighted key support levels in case markets continue to fall, indicating potential areas of interest for traders and investors to watch out for.
The ongoing Bitcoin options expiry event and market dynamics suggest a cautious approach for traders and investors, as volatility remains a key factor in determining price movements. With significant open interest at various strike prices, market sentiment is likely to play a crucial role in shaping the future direction of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
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