Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently made a bold prediction regarding the immediate future of the Bitcoin price. He expressed his pessimistic view on his X profile, stating that he is aiming for a price below $50,000 for the upcoming weekend. Hayes even mentioned that he took a “cheeky short” position, acknowledging his risky move by saying, “Pray for my soul, for I am a degen.”
While Hayes did not provide specific reasons for his prediction, analysts have pointed to the significant US economic indicators set to be released on Friday. The US jobs data has been a crucial factor for market analysts, with The Kobeissi Letter analysts noting its growing influence on Federal Reserve policies. They highlighted that prediction markets are now pricing in 4 rate cuts in 2024, the first time since the August 5th crash, due to deteriorating labor market data.
The upcoming jobs report will play a critical role in whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decides to cut interest rates by 50 bps or 25 bps. If the report meets expectations or exceeds them, analysts believe that a 25 bps rate cut is likely. The recent data on job openings in the US has been concerning, with a significant decline observed since March 2022. This weakening job market scenario has contributed to a negative sentiment in the Bitcoin market.
Adding to the bearish outlook, renowned trader Peter Brandt provided his technical analysis on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. He identified an “inverted expanding triangle or a megaphone” pattern, suggesting the potential for Bitcoin to test a lower boundary around $46,000. Brandt emphasized the dominance of selling pressure over buying interest in the market, indicating the need for a massive thrust for the bull market to resume.
The bleak outlook for the Bitcoin price presented by experts such as Arthur Hayes and Peter Brandt is a cause for concern in the cryptocurrency market. The impact of US economic indicators and Federal Reserve policies on Bitcoin’s price movement cannot be overlooked. As investors and traders navigate through these uncertain times, it is essential to carefully monitor the macroeconomic factors influencing the cryptocurrency market.
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