Ethereum’s price action has left many traders disappointed in recent months, with a significant underperformance compared to expectations. The current bearish trend has seen the price of Ethereum drop by 23% over a 30-day period, much to the dismay of investors who were hoping for a bullish surge post the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs. However, a closer look at the technical analysis reveals that the current performance of Ethereum is not entirely unexpected. In fact, it seems to be mirroring a pattern observed back in 2016.
Popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has been conducting an ongoing analysis of Ethereum’s price movements, comparing them to those seen in 2016. The resemblance is striking, with Ethereum’s monthly candlestick chart in 2024 closely mirroring its performance from 2016. This similarity became even more apparent when August 2024 closed with a bearish candle, just like in August 2016. What’s even more intriguing is that this pattern has been consistent throughout the year, with Ethereum closing monthly candlesticks in the same way as it did back in 2016 for eight consecutive months.
Looking back at 2016, Ethereum eventually went on a massive 19,000% rally, reaching $1,590 for the first time. If history repeats itself, we could see a green monthly close for Ethereum in September, followed by three consecutive bearish months from October to December. If this pattern continues into 2025, Ethereum might see a notable price rally above its current all-time high, bringing much-needed profitability to bullish investors.
As of now, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, reflecting a decline of 10.85% in the past seven days and 23% in the past 30 days. If the current trend indeed mimics the 2016 pattern, we might see Ethereum’s bearish momentum persisting throughout the remainder of the year. However, there is still hope for Ethereum bulls as the cryptocurrency is hovering around a critical support level, specifically at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level just above $2,400. A bounce from this level could signal the beginning of an upward trend, leading to a monthly close above its monthly open by the end of September.
Despite the current bearish sentiment, an ETH surge above $3,000, followed by $4,000 and $5,000, is still a possibility. If the historical pattern continues to play out, Ethereum could be in for a significant price rally in the coming months, bringing relief to investors who have been eagerly anticipating a bullish trend. As always, it’s essential for traders and investors to keep a close eye on the market dynamics and adjust their strategies accordingly to navigate through the volatility of the cryptocurrency space.
Leave a Reply