The head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, Matthew Sigel, has confirmed that the company’s Solana spot ETF proposal is betting on Donald Trump winning the US presidency. This speculation has raised concerns about the potential approval of the ETF, especially in the event of a Democrat victory.
According to analysts, the approval odds for the Solana ETF proposal are “near zero” if Joe Biden remains in office after a Democrat victory. However, if Trump wins the election, the odds are considered to be “better” but not guaranteed. The possibility of Trump appointing a new SEC chair could influence the decision-making process.
One major obstacle for the potential approval of the Solana ETF is the lack of a futures market on CME. This is seen as a crucial factor in the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs by regulatory authorities. Grayscale’s argument about surveillance-sharing agreements being replicable for spot ETFs raises questions about the SEC’s consistency in its standards across different types of ETFs.
The approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum by the SEC has implications for VanEck’s Solana ETF proposal. Sigel believes that surveillance sharing agreements with spot crypto exchanges could eliminate the need for a CME futures market. However, Bloomberg analysts suggest that new leadership at the SEC or legislative intervention may be necessary to secure approval.
Past ETF filings have included surveillance-sharing agreements with exchanges like Coinbase, but the necessity of such agreements has been questioned. Ongoing securities lawsuits against exchanges by the SEC further complicate the relationship between exchanges and ETF issuers in terms of surveillance and regulatory compliance.
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