James Check, lead Glassnode analyst, believes that Bitcoin (BTC) will surpass $250,000 in the current cycle. He attributes this bullish prediction to the strong conviction of long-term HODLers and the impact of institutional inflows into the market. Check points out that the recent entry of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity has initiated a “bull market distribution phase,” indicating a shift in market dynamics compared to previous cycles.
According to Check, the current Bitcoin market appears much more robust than in previous instances when the price surged to new highs. He highlights that high-conviction HODLers who have held onto their coins for over 155 days are now beginning to sell, signaling a potential cycle top. However, unlike past cycles, the analyst suggests that the ongoing influx of funds from Bitcoin ETFs could extend the current bull run.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is on the rise, with major investment funds like BlackRock’s Global Allocation Fund expressing a desire to allocate a portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin ETFs. Since their launch, these ETFs have attracted substantial net inflows, totaling over $9.3 billion. This institutional demand is reflected on-chain through changes in Bitcoin’s “realized cap,” a key metric that Check uses for his analysis.
The increasing realized cap indicates a healthy market with significant demand for Bitcoin. Check believes that with this level of interest, it would be surprising if Bitcoin does not reach $250,000 during this cycle. He suggests that the previous cycle may have been cut short due to factors like the GBTC premium, resulting in a faster and sharper price increase. In contrast, the current uptrend displays a more sustainable and steady growth pattern.
Check commends Bitcoin HODLers for effectively “pulling back the slingshot” on the price by reducing the circulating supply of coins. This scarcity, coupled with the renewed demand from ETFs, creates a powerful upward momentum in the market. The incremental bids from investors seeking to acquire Bitcoin further accelerate price appreciation, driving the digital asset closer to his six-figure target.
James Check’s analysis offers a compelling perspective on the factors driving Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The combination of strong HODLer conviction, institutional interest, and on-chain metrics all point towards a potential surge to $250,000 in the current cycle. While market dynamics can always change, the current outlook suggests a continuation of the bullish trend for Bitcoin.
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